Risk events

· shipping, stocks · usa · iran

How the U.S.-Iran deal set the stage for renewed fighting over the Strait of Hormuz

The U.S. and Iran's contradictory interperations of the memorandum of understanding have led to renewed fighting over the Strait of Hormuz.

UAE, OPEC · oil_gas, shipping, stocks · middle-east · russia · usa

UAE Oil Output Hits All-Time High, Doubling Pre-Crisis Levels

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) produced 4.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in June, its highest output ever, according to estimates by the International Energy Agency. The UAE’s crude oil production jumped from 3.3 million bpd in May to 4.1 million bpd in June after the country left OPEC effective May 1, started raising output, and managed to sneak a lot of exports out of the Middle East even as the Strait of Hormuz was mostly blockaded for the first half of June. The crude oil produ

WTI · oil_gas, shipping, stocks · middle-east · russia · usa

Oil Prices Rally on Renewed Hormuz Supply Risks

August WTI crude oil traded higher during the week ending July 10, with prices last at $71.84 through Thursday evening, up $3.38, or 4.94%. The contract posted a wide weekly range, climbing from a low of $67.82 to a high of $76.08 before pulling back late Thursday. The week's advance was driven by one dominant theme: growing concern over global oil supplies. Traders added a larger risk premium to crude prices as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East raised questions about the security

· oil_gas, currencies, shipping, stocks · middle-east · russia · usa

Fuel Refining Margins Hit Record Highs as Markets Tighten

Refining margins for gasoline and diesel jumped this week to new record highs after the re-escalation in the Middle East, Russia’s ban on diesel exports, and crumbling global fuel inventories. The surge in fuel margins and the price spread over crude prices suggest that the global fuel markets remain very tight despite the millions of barrels of crude that have managed to exit the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks. Diesel refining margins in Europe jumped to a record high of over $60 per barrel o

LNG · oil_gas, shipping, inflation_rates, stocks · middle-east · russia · usa

More LNG Carriers Brave the Strait of Hormuz Despite Renewed Hostilities

Close to half a dozen liquefied natural gas carriers have gone into the Strait of Hormuz in the past few days and six have exited the strait, despite the recent return to hostilities between the United States and Iran. According to Kpler data cited by Reuters, five ballast LNG tankers have entered the chokepoint in recent days, four of them linked to Qatar, and the fifth one owned by a Greek shipping company. The five vessels were previously seen outside Hormuz earlier this month. An earlier rep

Podcasts and other educational content- what are peoples top picks?

I wanna get a wide variety of options from authoritative voices. Ideally people with a solid track record of making accurate predictions. I currently listen to prof g markets and Ben Cowen for some crypto analysis. But that’s probably only giving me a fraction of the story. Ultimately I want analysis and predictions over strait up news. Basically what media are people swearing by? Open to any ideas! submitted by /u/mrlebusciut [link] [comments]

· shipping, stocks

· oil_gas, shipping, stocks · middle-east · russia · usa

Indonesia Receives First Russian Crude Shipment Under April Supply Deal

Indonesia has recently welcomed the first cargo of Russian crude oil under a deal Southeast Asia’s biggest economy struck with Moscow in April. About 770,000 barrels of Russian crude oil was delivered to Indonesia’s port of Balikpapan at the end of June, per customs data by Big Trade Data cited by Bloomberg. This was the first shipment of crude oil from Russia to Indonesia since the two countries agreed in April, at peak Hormuz crisis, on a regular supply deal. Indonesia produces some 600,000 ba

· oil_gas, shipping, stocks · middle-east · usa · uk

Hormuz Ship Insurance Demand Drops

London marine insurers have been seeing fewer inquiries for journeys to transit the Strait of Hormuz and some said the cost of cover had risen.

US · oil_gas, currencies, defense, shipping, stocks · usa · europe · iran

went 30% cash on tuesday when iran escalated,now i am questioning every decision I made.

I made what felt like a sensible call tuesday evening, moved 30% of my portfolio to cash when I saw US iran strikes breaking and felt validated on wed when the fow dropped 576 points and oil spiked 5%. Well today futures are mixed,the selloff seems to be stabilizing and energy and defense rotation is continuing but the broader panic appears to be cooling and alsoo pepsico is reporting Q2 earnings before the open this morning ( a stock I trimmed tues thats down 16% from highs) The exit was clean

LNG · oil_gas, shipping, stocks · middle-east · russia · usa

Pakistan Rushes to Buy Emergency LNG After Qatar Cargo Is Canceled

Pakistan is forced to turn to the spot LNG market once again after the re-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz has canceled a cargo from Qatar. State-controlled Pakistan LNG has just issued a tender to buy an LNG cargo for July 15-16 delivery. The decision was taken on Wednesday, after the renewed hostilities led to the cancellation of one LNG cargo from Qatar that was supposed to arrive in Pakistan later this month, anonymous traders familiar with the matter told Bloomberg on Thursday. Pakistan,

· oil_gas, shipping, stocks · middle-east · usa

Hormuz Tanker Traffic Stops

Jorge Leon, Head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad, noted that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had 'essentially stopped'.

UAE · oil_gas, shipping, stocks · middle-east · russia · usa

Gulf Oil Producers Relaunch Fight for Market Share in Asia

Saudi Arabia has slashed the price of its crude oil loading for Asia next month by the most in two decades as the world’s top crude exporter and the other major exporters in the Persian Gulf restarted the competition to sell into their biggest market, Asia, after the tentative reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia, as well as Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have bet in recent weeks that the situation with the navigability through the Strait of Hormuz will only improve

· oil_gas, shipping, inflation_rates, stocks · middle-east · usa · iran

Oil Surges on Renewed Iran Strikes

Oil prices surged to two-week highs after renewed U.S. strikes on Iran and threats to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

· oil_gas, shipping, stocks · middle-east · usa · iran

Qatar Role as USA-Iran Mediator Jeopardized

The targeting of a Qatari tanker near the Strait of Hormuz has imperiled the Gulf state's role as one of the primary mediators.

Strait of Hormuz traffic won't return to normal until 2027 after latest setback, Kalshi traders predict

Speculators now see just a 44% chance that traffic flows return to normal by Dec. 1.

· shipping, stocks · usa

· shipping, inflation_rates, stocks · china · asia

In Philippines, solar power becomes ‘practical necessity’ as energy costs soar

Joab Jorge runs Dream Latte Cafe, a speciality coffee shop and small-batch roastery, with his mother Ces out of their old ancestral home in Pilar, a town in Bataan province some 180km (112 miles) northwest of Manila. Rising electricity costs and frequent blackouts have put a strain on the business, which has already had to raise prices by 10 per cent to cover higher costs for goods and imported coffee beans since the energy crisis triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in February. The

US, API, SPR · oil_gas, shipping, stocks · middle-east · russia · usa

US Crude Oil, Product Inventories Fall Even As Hormuz Traffic Begins to Flow

The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States fell by 399,000 barrels in the week ending July 3. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories fell by 6.072 million barrels. Although commercial crude oil inventories excluding the SPR have been falling rapidly for more than two months, shedding almost 60 million barrels over the last twelve weeks, US crude inventories are only down 8.6 million barrels so far this year, according to API data, kept i

· oil_gas, shipping, inflation_rates, stocks · middle-east · russia · usa

Geopolitical Risk Returns as Drone Strikes Hit Hormuz Shipping

Drone strikes in the Strait of Hormuz lifted oil prices as geopolitical risks resurfaced, even as weak physical crude markets continue to weigh on sentiment. Saudi Arabia Slashes Its Way Back Into Asia - Saudi national oil company Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) has slashed its official selling prices for Asian-bound cargoes in August by a whopping $11 per barrel, almost double the expected cut. - Marking the first time since 2020 that Saudi barrels in Asia trade at discounts to regional benchmarks,

· oil_gas, semiconductors, shipping, stocks · usa

Why oil investors fear the next toll fight could be the Strait of Malacca

The prospect of fees to transit the Strait of Hormuz has sparked alarm, not least by investors who fear it could be replicated in other maritime corridors.

MRPL · oil_gas, shipping, inflation_rates, stocks · middle-east · russia · usa

India Resumes Iraqi Oil Imports Despite Hormuz Shipping Risks

Indian state refiners are back to buying Iraqi crude that would have to transit the Strait of Hormuz, in a sign that the world’s third-largest crude oil importer seeks to bring supply from the Middle East after the tentative reopening of the chokepoint. State-owned Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL), which operates a 300,000-barrels-per-day refinery in southern India, has chartered a tanker to load crude from Iraq, sources from the shipping industry told Reuters on Tuesday. Thi

LSEG, KK, VLCC · oil_gas, shipping, stocks · middle-east · russia · usa

4 Million Barrels of Saudi Crude Set to Transit Strait of Hormuz

Two very large crude carriers loaded with Saudi crude are heading for the Strait of Hormuz in the latest sign of recovering traffic via the vital oil chokepoint. The tankers are owned by Japanese companies, Reuters said in a report citing data from Kpler and LSEG. According to the Kpler data, the tankers, operated by Nippon Yusen KK and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, had loaded Saudi crude on March 1, after which they got stuck in the Strait of Hormuz after Iran shut down traffic through the waterway. B

EV, CNPC · oil_gas, shipping, stocks · china · asia · europe

Peak oil: China’s crude demand set to fall as EV bets ease Hormuz fears

China’s crude oil demand is expected to peak this year, according to executives from the country’s largest oil firm, a scenario set to further reshape the global energy market following the Strait of Hormuz crisis. The world’s top oil importer would record slowing demand as reductions in the use of transport fuel outweighed gains in petrochemical demand, said Zhang Changbao, vice-president of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) Asia-Pacific (Hong Kong), at an event in Hong Kong on...

⚠ shipping-routes7/6/2026

Big Oil Heads for Record Profits as Trump Turns Up the Heat on Gas Prices

The oil majors are set for windfall earnings for the second quarter, which saw crude oil prices jump to a four-year high due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The earnings at both ExxonMobil and Chevron are expected to have tripled in the April to June quarter compared to the first quarter, as the worst supply disruption in the history of oil markets crippled oil flows from the Middle East, triggered crude price spikes and heightened volatility, and depleted oil inventories, including in t

· oil_gas, shipping, stocks · middle-east · russia · usa

⚠ shipping-routes7/6/2026

Hormuz Tanker Traffic Slowly Recovers Despite Persistent Risks

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has picked up pace in recent weeks, but oil flows are anything but smooth. At least six tankers carrying oil or LNG moved to exit the Persian Gulf through Hormuz on a route close to Oman’s coast on Sunday, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. This comes hours after at least eight oil tankers and LNG carriers made mysterious and unexplained U-turns on Friday and Saturday while near the Omani coast, outbound from the Gulf. Of these ta

LNG · oil_gas, shipping, stocks · middle-east · russia · usa

⚠ shipping-routes7/6/2026

Tankers Cross Hormuz Near Oman

Oil and gas shipping along a U.S.-protected corridor in the Strait of Hormuz showed signs of recovering, after a batch of vessels performed unexplained U-turns and detours in the vital energy corridor.

· oil_gas, shipping, inflation_rates, stocks · middle-east · usa

⚠ shipping-routes7/5/2026

OPEC+ raises output levels again despite tumbling crude prices

Major oil producers on Sunday agreed once again to modestly increase their crude production, although, as in previous months, the hike is largely symbolic until a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran sticks and the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened to shipping traffic.

OPEC · oil_gas, shipping, inflation_rates, stocks · usa · saudi-arabia · iran

⚠ shipping-routes7/5/2026

Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei holds ‘positive’ view of China, ambassador says

Iran’s new supreme leader shares his late father’s “positive” view of relations with China, Tehran’s ambassador told a security forum in Beijing. Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli also suggested that while Tehran would charge “service fees” for vessels using the Strait of Hormuz, China might receive “special” treatment because it was a “friendly” nation. “[Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s] view, as well as that of our martyred leader, regarding Iran’s relationship with China has been positive, active and

· shipping, stocks · china · asia · usa

US · oil_gas, shipping, stocks · middle-east · russia · usa

Hormuz Turns Oil Outlooks Into a Guessing Game

Numbers Report – July 03, 2026 In the latest edition of the Numbers Report, we will take a look at some of the most interesting figures put out this week in the energy and metals sectors. Each week we’ll dig into some data and provide a bit of explanation on what drives the numbers. Let’s take a look. 1. Hormuz Turns Oil Outlooks Into a Guessing Game - Energy market research organizations have started to recalibrate their global supply outlooks for 2026 and 2027, with the US Energy Information A

· oil_gas, shipping, stocks · middle-east · russia · usa

TotalEnergies Offers Millions of Barrels of Iraqi Crude to Asian Buyers

TotalEnergies is offering millions of barrels of Iraq’s Basrah Medium and Basrah Heavy crudes for prompt delivery to Asia this month and next, traders who had received some of these offers told Bloomberg on Friday. Iraq, one of the Persian Gulf producers most hit by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has been offering crude on the spot market with deep discounts and only on a loading basis, which means buyers need to secure empty tankers to move inbound into the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz.

· oil_gas, shipping, inflation_rates, stocks · middle-east · usa · china

China Urges 'Unimpeded Passage' of Hormuz

China called for the unhindered flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

MOU · oil_gas, shipping, stocks · middle-east · russia · usa

Citi: Oil Could Sink to $60 as Hormuz Traffic Normalizes

Brent Crude prices could plunge to as low as $60 per barrel by the end of the year, says Citigroup, which expects flows through the Strait of Hormuz to soon normalize and the U.S. and Iran to reach a deal in the coming months. “We continue to recommend selling any summer rallies and forecast Brent reaching $60 to $65 a barrel by the turn of the year,” Citi analysts said in a note carried by Bloomberg. “We expect the MOU to hold and turn into a deal over the coming months as incentives to de-esca

· oil_gas, shipping, stocks · usa

Oman walks a diplomatic tightrope over Strait of Hormuz fees, creating a ‘blind spot’ for markets

Oman is using strategic ambiguity as talks over possible Strait of Hormuz fees raise legal, diplomatic and oil market concerns.

· oil_gas, shipping, stocks · usa · middle-east · saudi-arabia

Saudi Arabia has ramped up oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz since U.S.-Iran deal

Saudi Arabia is restarting its export logistics in the Persian Gulf after a three-month pause, according to Kpler.

· oil_gas, currencies, shipping, stocks · middle-east · russia · usa

India Fast-Tracks State Company Stake Sales to Cover Oil Shock Costs

India is accelerating a plan to sell stakes in major state-held companies as it looks to raise billions of U.S. dollars to plug the gap left by the oil shock from the Strait of Hormuz closure. The Indian government has identified eight state-owned companies in which it would seek stake sales in the coming months, including in major insurers and banks, sources with knowledge of the plan told Bloomberg on Thursday. The proceeds from the stake sales could be worth $1 billion each for some of the bi

· oil_gas, shipping, inflation_rates, stocks · middle-east · russia · usa

Saudi Arabia Rushes Crude Exports Through Reopened Strait of Hormuz

About 10 million barrels of Saudi crude have cleared the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, as supertankers continue to load oil from the Saudi port of Ras Tanura in the Persian Gulf and Saudi Arabia is ramping up oil exports to Asia. Saudi oil giant Aramco, the world's single largest crude oil exporter, has already managed to ship at least five supertankers from Ras Tanura through the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing shipping data and trade sources. At least another four sup

CNBC · oil_gas, shipping, stocks · middle-east · russia · usa

Iran Exports Crude at 20% Premium Even as Unsold Barrels Pile Up at Sea

Crude oil in floating storage off the Iranian coast is on the rise amid reluctance among buyers, Bloomberg reported today, citing data from Vortexa and its own calculations, suggesting some 58 million barrels are sitting on tankers. More than 90% of those barrels had no clear destination, Bloomberg said in its report, adding that the tankers were "indicating "for orders" or Singapore as their next port of call, a sign they may conduct ship-to-ship transfers in the Malacca Strait." Interestingly,

⚠ shipping-routes7/1/2026

Crude Extends Losses on Glut Fears

Oil prices fell as recovering Strait of Hormuz traffic and rising global supplies reinforced expectations of an oversupplied market.

· oil_gas, shipping, stocks · middle-east · usa

⚠ shipping-routes7/1/2026

Singapore telecoms company slashes CEO’s salary over outages

The chief executive of Singapore’s largest and oldest telecommunications company took a pay cut last year despite the company posting a sharp rise in profits, after a series of network failures dented its operational record. Singtel CEO Yuen Kuan Moon received S$6.8 million (US$5.3 million) for the financial year ended March 31, down 16.9 per cent from S$8.2 million a year earlier, according to the company’s annual report released on Tuesday and first reported by The Straits Times. The pay cut..

US · shipping, stocks · china · asia · usa

· oil_gas, shipping, stocks · usa · china · middle-east

Oil posts largest quarterly price drop in 6 years as historic supply crunch eases

Workarounds to the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint and a drop in crude imports to China helped ease the impact of lost Persian Gulf oil supplies.

US, API, SPR · oil_gas, shipping, stocks · middle-east · russia · usa

US Crude Oil Inventories Keep Falling As Hormuz Flows Slow To Start

The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States fell by 6.072 million barrels in the week ending June 26. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories fell by 765,000 barrels. Although commercial crude oil inventories excluding the SPR have been falling rapidly for more than two months, shedding 59.4 million barrels over the last eleven weeks, US crude inventories are only down 8 million barrels so far this year, according to API data, kept in chec

· oil_gas, shipping, inflation_rates, stocks · middle-east · usa

Crude Slides on Rising Supply

Oil prices fell as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz increased and traders anticipated a growing global supply surplus.

· oil_gas, shipping, stocks · middle-east · russia · usa

Oil Prices Head for Biggest Quarterly Drop Since Pandemic

As traffic through the Strait of Hormuz tentatively reopens following the U.S.-Iran deal to make a deal, oil prices on Tuesday were on track to post a 20% monthly decline and a 30% quarterly plunge in the biggest slump in a quarter since the pandemic-driven crash in prices. In the first quarter of 2020, Brent Crude prices plummeted by 65.5% as the world entered into lockdowns and road transport and industrial fuel demand crashed. The next steepest decline since then was registered in the quarter

· oil_gas, shipping, stocks · middle-east · russia · usa

Morgan Stanley Cuts Brent Forecast to $75 a Barrel

Morgan Stanley has slashed its oil price forecasts for the next 18 month as it expects the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to accelerate a new supply glut. The return of oil supply from the Middle East, combined with high U.S. oil exports and still weak Chinese crude purchases, will bring the market full-circle to a new glut in the coming months, according to the bank’s analysts, who slashed their oil price projections for the second time in two weeks. Morgan Stanley now expects Dated Brent to

· oil_gas, shipping, stocks · middle-east · russia · usa

Asian Refiners Redirect Middle East Crude to the U.S. as Hormuz Flows Recover

Some Asian refiners have recently offered Middle Eastern cargoes to the U.S. West Coast as supply from the Persian Gulf rises with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while Asian buyers are well-supplied for the next two months. Refiners in Asia have spent the better part of the past four months scrambling to procure crude for the summer from producers outside the Middle East. Buyers now have enough non-Middle Eastern crude lined up to arrive over the next two months, meaning that spot purcha

· oil_gas, shipping, stocks · usa

Strait of Hormuz is reopening faster than expected, says Morgan Stanley as it cuts oil-price target

The Strait of Hormuz is reopening faster than expected, oil analysts at Morgan Stanley said as they cut their oil-price view for this year and next.

US · oil_gas, shipping, inflation_rates, stocks · middle-east · usa · iran

Oil Rises as Peace Talks Resume

Crude climbed after the US and Iran signaled renewed diplomacy while investors monitored shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

US, NBC · oil_gas, shipping, stocks · middle-east · russia · usa

Trump Signals Diplomatic Opening After Days of U.S.-Iran Strikes

After some persistent Sunday reports, including in The Wall Street Journal, said that last week's renewed tit-for-tat fighting between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz had 'stalled' the next round of talks, President Trump stated on Truth Social Monday that a meeting on Iran would be held in Doha on Tuesday. He stipulated that Iran has requested the talks. "Iran has requested a meeting. It will take place tomorrow in Doha," Trump wrote on his social media platform in all caps. NBC notes i

LNG · oil_gas, shipping, stocks · middle-east · russia · usa

Pakistan LNG Seeks Emergency Cargo After Weekend Hormuz Flare-Up

Pakistan’s state LNG importer is urgently seeking to procure an LNG cargo for delivery this week, with offers due on June 29, as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains volatile amid persistent threats to tankers and reignited U.S.-Iran tensions. Pakistan LNG, the state-owned firm, has issued an “urgent request” for LNG cargo delivery between June 30 and July 4, per a tender document cited by Bloomberg. The Pakistani dependence on Middle Eastern LNG created a major gas supply and power cris