Is the AI Bubble Popping? Here's What I'm Actually Watching

Oracle's 5-year CDS jumped to ~139 bps recently. Not a disaster, but it's a reminder that the bond market isn't fully buying the AI growth story. Microsoft has paused some data center leases and canceled projects. When hyperscalers start tapping the brakes, it's worth paying attention. VCs poured $270B into AI in 2025, but deal count fell to its lowest level since 2020. More money, fewer companies. That's concentration, not broad ecosystem growth. What worries me most is the circular nature of t