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8d07/06coups-regime · 1/5

The hurricane rebuild trade doesn't exist at season open. I tested whether it lives after actual landfalls instead. My most significant result died under robustness checks, which turned out to be the interesting part.

a couple weeks ago I tested the classic "buy Home Depot and Lowe's before hurricane season" trade: event study around June 1 season open, 16 years of data. result: the trade loses, roughly -2 to -3% vs the market, and the drift starts about 8 days before the season even opens. posted it to r/stocks post and the pushback was fair: June 1 is a calendar story, not an event. the real test is actual landfalls, with severity and geography separated. so I built it. setup: 23 US mainland hurricane landf

Socialunclassifiedusa
8d07/06war-conflict · 3/5

Fear of an Oil Glut May Be Overblown, Top Consultancy Says

Up to 75% of the previous oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are expected to return to the market by the end of the year, but significantly lower oil prices aren’t guaranteed for 2027 as the ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions are unlikely to be resolved for good soon, Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman emeritus of FGE NexantECA, told CNBC on Monday. Before the Iran war, the consultancy FGE NexantECA expected oil prices to be in the upper $50s low $60s per barrel next year. This could still be the case in

unclassifiedmiddle-east · russia · usa
9d07/06war-conflict · 3/5

Hong Kong cancels red rainstorm signal after hour as suspected waterspout spotted

This story has been made freely available as a public service to our readers. Please consider supporting SCMP’s journalism by subscribing. New users who download our updated app get a seven-day free trial. The Hong Kong Observatory issued a red rainstorm warning for an hour on Monday night, while a suspected waterspout was spotted off Cheung Chau. The red signal – the middle level in a three-tier system – was issued at 9.45pm but was cancelled at 10.45pm. An amber warning had been issued...

unclassifiedchina · asia · usa
9d07/06war-conflict · 1/5

Cabinet approves draft budget for 2027

'The budget for 2027 has been approved by the Federal Cabinet. Next year's budget calls for spending of 555.4 billion euros and new debt of 118.7 billion euros - both more than initially planned. Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil (SPD) defended the higher debt: "You can't defend yourself against Putin with a black zero," said the SPD leader on Sunday evening in the ARD "summer interview." SPIEGEL already reported on the budget on Friday

Socialunclassifiedgermany · usa · europe
9d07/06war-conflict · 2/5

Don’t assume US decline will lead to its fall, warns Chinese scholar

Although the US is in decline, underestimating the country could still prove a “fatal mistake”, according to a prominent Chinese commentator. “The United States is still a hegemony in decline. Even with its relative decline, it remains a hegemony because no nation or force is currently capable of truly taking its place,” Zheng Yongnian, dean of the school of public policy at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, said. In a recent interview with the Greater Bay Area Review, which is...

unclassifiedchina · asia · usa
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