The hurricane rebuild trade doesn't exist at season open. I tested whether it lives after actual landfalls instead. My most significant result died under robustness checks, which turned out to be the interesting part.

a couple weeks ago I tested the classic "buy Home Depot and Lowe's before hurricane season" trade: event study around June 1 season open, 16 years of data. result: the trade loses, roughly -2 to -3% vs the market, and the drift starts about 8 days before the season even opens. posted it to r/stocks post and the pushback was fair: June 1 is a calendar story, not an event. the real test is actual landfalls, with severity and geography separated. so I built it. setup: 23 US mainland hurricane landf