How much of the U.S.–Iran news is already priced into oil?

Earlier today I was discussing with a friend how oil could react if a U.S.–Iran ceasefire or broader deal started looking more likely. A few hours later, reports emerged suggesting that a tentative agreement may be under discussion, pending approval from President Trump. As the news spread, oil prices began to react. My initial thought was that easing tensions could reduce some of the geopolitical risk premium that's been supporting oil prices. If that view gains traction, we could see further d