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Stock analysis — probability-based

Structured assessment of how likely a stock is to reach a target move within a chosen time horizon — with clear factors, risks, and language that doesn’t overwhelm anyone.

Stock or company name

Enter a company name or the ticker symbol — both work. Examples: "Apple" or "AAPL", "CrowdStrike" or "CRWD", "SAP" or "Siemens". If there are multiple matches you can pick one in the next step.

Time horizon

A trading day is a day on which the exchange is open. 20 trading days roughly equal one month.

Target move

This is the price increase whose probability is being estimated. Larger target moves are generally less likely.

Analysis focus

A broad assessment taking several aspects into account.

The calculation is based on modelled probabilities — not a real market analysis.

No analysis run yet

Enter a company name (e.g. "Apple") or a ticker symbol (e.g. "AAPL") above, pick a time horizon, target move and focus, and click "Estimate probability". If several matches are possible, you can select the right one in the next step. The tool then calculates a model estimate with an explanation — without a buy or sell recommendation.