Thoughts on my USOY position? I've had some success, but should I continue?

I have some USOY on the Roth 401K side of my portfolio. With the recent "memorandum of understanding" between the US and Iran announced yesterday/this morning, I expect oil prices will drop, so I'm thinking of buying more. I've had some success with this approach since the Strait of Hormuz was shut down: wait for the announcement of a "deal," buy USOY after it drops, then wait for oil prices to recover and sell. Just curious about people's thoughts on this strategy, as I'm wondering if I may be